1929, 2000 v\u0259 2007-ci ill\u0259ri n\u0259 \u00fcmumil\u0259\u015fdirir? Bu, s\u0259hml\u0259rin marja borcunda b\u00f6y\u00fck bir art\u0131m\u0131n ba\u015f verdiyi ill\u0259r idi. Bu ill\u0259rin h\u0259r birind\u0259, birjalar\u0131n y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259n d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259rind\u0259n faydalana bilm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn investorlar \u00f6z hesablar\u0131nda y\u00fcks\u0259k t\u0259sir\u0259 malik oldular. V\u0259 investorlar h\u0259r d\u0259f\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck itkil\u0259r verdil\u0259r. “Marja borcunun s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 birjada d\u0259h\u015f\u0259tli \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f izl\u0259di.” B\u0259li, yen\u0259 eyni n\u00fcmun\u0259ni izl\u0259yir.<\/p>\n
Marja borcunda b\u00fct\u00fcn zamanlar\u0131n \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k h\u0259ddi 2013-c\u00fc ilin aprelind\u0259 \u0259ld\u0259 edildi (son r\u0259q\u0259m bizd\u0259). 2007-ci ilin iyul ay\u0131nda biz \u0259vv\u0259lki \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131q. S\u0259hml\u0259rin marja borcu bir il \u0259vv\u0259l\u0259 nisb\u0259t\u0259n 29% art\u0131b ki, bu da b\u00f6y\u00fck bir s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015fd\u0131r. 2012-ci ilin pay\u0131z\u0131ndan b\u0259ri S&P 500 20%-d\u0259n \u00e7ox qazanc \u0259ld\u0259 edib. \u018fsas iqtisadi \u0259saslar pisl\u0259\u015fm\u0259y\u0259 davam ets\u0259 d\u0259, fond bazar\u0131 rekord y\u00fcks\u0259kl\u0259r\u0259 do\u011fru y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015fini davam etdirir. B\u0259zi iqtisadi proqnoz\u00e7ular deyirl\u0259r ki, \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli bir qabarc\u0131q s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 formala\u015f\u0131r, o, n\u0259 vaxt partlayacaq? \u018fg\u0259r tarix eyni modelin inki\u015faf etdiyi zaman oldu\u011fu kimi davam ed\u0259rs\u0259, biz bazar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6km\u0259si il\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015firik.<\/p>\n
2000-ci ild\u0259n b\u0259ri iki d\u0259f\u0259, “marja borcu \u00dcDM-in 2,25%-ni ke\u00e7dikd\u0259, birjalar \u00e7\u00f6kd\u00fc”. Bu, b\u00f6y\u00fck bir q\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 bayraqd\u0131r,<\/p>\n
\u00f6z ba\u015f\u0131na bir fond bazar\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6km\u0259nin tezlikl\u0259 ba\u015f ver\u0259c\u0259yini proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rmasa da.<\/p>\n
B\u0259zi \u015f\u0259rh\u00e7il\u0259r bildirirl\u0259r ki, investorlar bu q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259k t\u0259sir\u0259 malikdirl\u0259r, \u00e7\u00fcnki maliyy\u0259 s\u0259rmay\u0259si d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda b\u0259zi ekspertl\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n m\u00fcsb\u0259t hal kimi q\u0259bul edilir.<\/p>\n
Marja borcunun b\u00f6y\u00fck art\u0131m\u0131 ba\u015fqalar\u0131 t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n m\u0259\u015fum \u0259lam\u0259t kimi q\u0259bul edilir. \u0130nvestor hesablar\u0131ndak\u0131 marja borcu \u00dcDM-in t\u0259xmin\u0259n 2,4%-n\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259ldi (2013-c\u00fc ilin sonu), New York Times is\u0259, “bazar b\u00f6hran\u0131 h\u0259mi\u015f\u0259 izl\u0259m\u0259mi\u015fd\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259l bu q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda…”<\/p>\n
1999-cu ild\u0259 texnoloji fond k\u00f6p\u00fcy\u00fc fonunda son ill\u0259rd\u0259 ilk d\u0259f\u0259 \u00fcmumi marja borcu \u00dcDM-in 2,25 faizind\u0259n yuxar\u0131 qalxd\u0131. Bu, 2000-2005-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259ki m\u0259nzil bumunda n\u00f6vb\u0259ti y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015f\u0259 ba\u015flad\u0131, investorlar\u0131n ev almaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn istifad\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn investisiya hesablar\u0131ndan kreditl\u0259r \u0259ld\u0259 etdikl\u0259ri ortaya \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131. Marja kreditl\u0259rind\u0259ki \u0259vv\u0259lki art\u0131m 2000-ci ild\u0259 oldu\u011fu kimi 2007-2008-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 pis ba\u015fa \u00e7atd\u0131.<\/p>\n
S&P 500-\u00fcn son iyirmi ild\u0259ki performans\u0131n\u0131n qrafikini onlayn tapmaq olar. Bunu New York Times-\u0131n internetd\u0259 d\u0259rc etdiyi marja borc qrafikl\u0259ri il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259 etm\u0259k olar. Onlar\u0131n aras\u0131nda \u00e7ox g\u00fccl\u00fc bir \u0259laq\u0259 tapacaqs\u0131n\u0131z. “H\u0259r d\u0259f\u0259 marja borcu ke\u00e7mi\u015fd\u0259 dramatik yeni bir y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259y\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259ldi, birja q\u0259zas\u0131 v\u0259 t\u0259n\u0259zz\u00fcl h\u0259mi\u015f\u0259 izl\u0259di.” B\u0259zi \u015f\u0259rh\u00e7il\u0259r soru\u015furlar ki, bizi ox\u015far q\u0259za g\u00f6zl\u0259yirmi?<\/p>\n
\u0130qtisadiyyatda 2009-cu ild\u0259n b\u0259ri g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u0259y\u0259n m\u00fcxt\u0259lif \u015feyl\u0259r yenid\u0259n ba\u015f verm\u0259y\u0259 ba\u015flay\u0131r ki, bu da b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131 daha da narahat edir.<\/p>\n
Yax\u0131nla\u015fan iqtisadi sunami il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 x\u0259b\u0259rdarl\u0131q etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f iqtisad\u00e7\u0131lar t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n x\u0259b\u0259rdarl\u0131qlar s\u0259sl\u0259ndirilir.<\/p>\n
Ehtiyatl\u0131 investor \u0259hval-ruhiyy\u0259sinin konkret n\u00fcmun\u0259sini 2013-c\u00fc ilin yay\u0131nda bazar\u0131n haz\u0131rk\u0131 v\u0259ziyy\u0259tini m\u00fczakir\u0259 ed\u0259n tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f investor Alan M. Nyuman s\u0259sl\u0259ndirdi:<\/p>\n
“2013-c\u00fc ild\u0259 h\u0259l\u0259 bir \u015fey d\u0259yi\u015fibs\u0259, biz \u0259lb\u0259tt\u0259 ki, bunu g\u00f6rm\u00fcr\u00fck. Fiskaldan sonrak\u0131 erk\u0259n ralliy\u0259 baxmayaraq, bu, Dow Industrials \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 2007-ci ilin zirv\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z eyni heyvand\u0131r. AB\u015e fond bazar\u0131 h\u0259dd\u0259n art\u0131q leverageddir, h\u0259ddind\u0259n art\u0131q qiym\u0259tlidir. v\u0259 mexaniki q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n o q\u0259d\u0259r idar\u0259 edilmi\u015fdir ki, b\u00fct\u00fcn saxlama d\u00f6vrl\u0259ri indi tarixin h\u0259r hans\u0131 bir vaxt\u0131nda oldu\u011fundan daha \u00e7ox risk\u0259 m\u0259ruz qal\u0131r.”<\/p>\n
\u00c7ox t\u0259\u0259ss\u00fcf ki, bir \u00e7ox amerikal\u0131lar bu a\u00e7\u0131q-a\u015fkar u\u011fursuz x\u0259b\u0259rdarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r. Bir \u00e7ox insanlar \u00f6zl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn etm\u0259li olduqlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnc\u0259l\u0259ri etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn normal media orqanlar\u0131ndan v\u0259 m\u00fcnt\u0259z\u0259m internet m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131rlar. Hal-haz\u0131rda normal media m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259ri b\u00f6y\u00fck bir fond bazar\u0131nda k\u00f6p\u00fcy\u00fcn i\u00e7ind\u0259 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 t\u0259kid edir… Siz kim\u0259 inanmal\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z..? Tarixi n\u00fcmun\u0259l\u0259r bunun yenid\u0259n olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 deyir.<\/p>\n