\u018fvv\u0259lki m\u0259qal\u0259d\u0259 m\u0259n pul v\u0259saitl\u0259rinin h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259ti s\u0259viyy\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 xas qabar\u0131ql\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fcz\u0259ltm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bir ne\u00e7\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259 birlikd\u0259 s\u0259hmin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259n\u0259n\u0259vi v\u0259 \u201cd\u0259rslik\u201d metodunu m\u00fczakir\u0259 etdim. Bu yaz\u0131da, m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259t, xalis aktivl\u0259r v\u0259 sat\u0131\u015flar kimi \u015firk\u0259tin maliyy\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rinin statistik \u00e7arpanlar\u0131ndan istifad\u0259 ed\u0259r\u0259k, s\u0259hmin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259sinin ba\u015fqa \u00fcmumi \u00fcsuluna n\u0259z\u0259r salaca\u011f\u0131q.<\/p>\n
Bu c\u00fcr t\u0259hlild\u0259 istifad\u0259 edil\u0259 bil\u0259n \u0259sas\u0259n \u00fc\u00e7 statistik \u00e7arpan var: qiym\u0259t-sat\u0131\u015f (P\/S) nisb\u0259ti, qiym\u0259t-kitab (P\/B) nisb\u0259ti v\u0259 qiym\u0259t-qazanc (P\/) E) nisb\u0259t. Qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259 zaman\u0131 onlar\u0131n ham\u0131s\u0131 eyni \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 istifad\u0259 olunur, ona g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 g\u0259lin \u0259vv\u0259lc\u0259 metodu t\u0259svir ed\u0259k, sonra \u00fc\u00e7 f\u0259rqli qat\u0131n n\u0259 vaxt istifad\u0259 edil\u0259c\u0259yi haqq\u0131nda bir az m\u00fczakir\u0259 ed\u0259k, sonra bir n\u00fcmun\u0259y\u0259 ke\u00e7\u0259k.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ox \u0259sasl\u0131 metod<\/b>
\n
S\u0259hmin \u00e7ox \u0259sasl\u0131 \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si ba\u015fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcl\u0259n sad\u0259dir, lakin parametrl\u0259ri \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n i\u015f t\u0259l\u0259b olunur. Bir s\u00f6zl\u0259, burada m\u0259qs\u0259d b\u00f6y\u00fcm\u0259 perspektivl\u0259ri, r\u0259qab\u0259t m\u00f6vqeyi v\u0259 s. n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131nmaqla, s\u0259hmin \u0259sasl\u0131 \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 ticar\u0259t etm\u0259li oldu\u011funa inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z a\u011flabatan bir “h\u0259d\u0259f \u00e7oxlu\u011fu” il\u0259 g\u0259lm\u0259kdir. Bu “h\u0259d\u0259f \u00e7oxlu\u011fu” il\u0259 g\u0259lm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 almal\u0131 oldu\u011funuz bir ne\u00e7\u0259 \u015fey var:<\/p>\n
1) S\u0259hml\u0259rin orta tarixi \u00e7oxlu\u011fu (P\/E nisb\u0259ti, P\/S nisb\u0259ti v\u0259 s.) n\u0259dir? \u018fn az\u0131 5 illik, tercihen 10 il m\u00fcdd\u0259tin\u0259 ke\u00e7m\u0259lisiniz. Bu, h\u0259m \u00f6k\u00fcz, h\u0259m d\u0259 ay\u0131 bazarlar\u0131nda \u00e7oxluq haqq\u0131nda bir fikir verir.<\/p>\n
2) R\u0259qibl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn orta \u00e7arpanlar n\u0259dir? T\u0259dqiq olunan s\u0259hml\u0259r\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 f\u0259rq n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r geni\u015fdir v\u0259 niy\u0259?<\/p>\n
3) Y\u00fcks\u0259k v\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259rin diapazonu \u00e7ox geni\u015fdir, yoxsa \u00e7ox dar?<\/p>\n
4) S\u0259hm \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k perspektivl\u0259r hans\u0131lard\u0131r? Ke\u00e7mi\u015fd\u0259n daha yax\u015f\u0131 olsalar, “h\u0259d\u0259f \u00e7oxlu\u011fu” tarixi normalardan daha y\u00fcks\u0259k t\u0259yin edil\u0259 bil\u0259r. \u018fg\u0259r onlar yax\u015f\u0131 deyils\u0259, “h\u0259d\u0259f \u00e7oxlu\u011fu” a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r (b\u0259z\u0259n \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131). G\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k perspektivl\u0259r haqq\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u0259rk\u0259n potensial r\u0259qab\u0259ti n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alma\u011f\u0131 unutmay\u0131n!<\/p>\n
A\u011flabatan bir “h\u0259d\u0259f \u00e7oxlu\u011fu” il\u0259 tan\u0131\u015f olduqdan sonra qalan\u0131 kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r asand\u0131r. Birincisi, g\u0259lir v\u0259\/v\u0259 ya qazanc \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn cari il t\u0259xminl\u0259rini g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcn v\u0259 h\u0259d\u0259f bazar kapitalizasiyas\u0131n\u0131 \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn h\u0259d\u0259fi onlara qar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7oxald\u0131n. Sonra siz onu s\u0259hml\u0259rin say\u0131na b\u00f6l\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz, iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 olaraq ke\u00e7mi\u015f tendensiyalara v\u0259 elan edilmi\u015f s\u0259hml\u0259rin geri al\u0131nmas\u0131 proqramlar\u0131na \u0259saslanaraq seyreltm\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn d\u00fcz\u0259li\u015fl\u0259r edirsiniz. Bu, siz\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik marjas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 20% v\u0259 ya daha \u00e7ox almaq ist\u0259diyiniz “m\u0259qbul qiym\u0259t” qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259sini verir.<\/p>\n
\u018fg\u0259r bu \u00e7a\u015fq\u0131nl\u0131q yarad\u0131rsa, m\u0259qal\u0259nin sonrak\u0131 hiss\u0259sind\u0259ki n\u00fcmun\u0259 h\u0259r \u015feyi ayd\u0131nla\u015fd\u0131rma\u011fa k\u00f6m\u0259k etm\u0259lidir.<\/p>\n
F\u0259rqli \u00e7oxluqlardan n\u0259 vaxt istifad\u0259 etm\u0259li<\/b><\/p>\n
F\u0259rqli \u00e7arpanlar\u0131n h\u0259r biri m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n hallarda \u00f6z \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fcy\u00fcn\u0259 malikdir:<\/p>\n
P\/E nisb\u0259ti<\/b>: P\/E, ehtimal ki, istifad\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259n \u00e7ox yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7oxluqdur. Bununla bel\u0259, m\u0259n bunu \u0259v\u0259zind\u0259 qiym\u0259t-\u0259m\u0259liyyat m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259ti nisb\u0259ti kimi t\u0259nziml\u0259y\u0259rdim, burada \u0259m\u0259liyyat m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259ti faiz v\u0259 vergil\u0259rd\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259lki m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259t kimi m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edilir (EBIT – amortizasiya v\u0259 amortizasiya daxildir). Bunun s\u0259b\u0259bi, zaman-zaman bir s\u0259hm d\u0259y\u0259rin\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259n m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259ti \u0259yril\u0259\u015fdir\u0259n bird\u0259f\u0259lik hadis\u0259l\u0259ri hamarla\u015fd\u0131rmaqd\u0131r. P\/EBIT nisb\u0259t\u0259n sabit sat\u0131\u015f s\u0259viyy\u0259l\u0259ri v\u0259 marjalar\u0131 olan g\u0259lirli \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yax\u015f\u0131 i\u015fl\u0259yir. Z\u0259r\u0259rli \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00fcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259mir v\u0259 aktivl\u0259r\u0259 \u0259saslanan firmalar (banklar, s\u0131\u011forta \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri) v\u0259 ya a\u011f\u0131r siklikl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yax\u015f\u0131 i\u015fl\u0259mir.<\/p>\n
P\/B nisb\u0259ti<\/b>: Qiym\u0259t-kitab nisb\u0259ti aktiv\u0259 \u0259saslanan firmalar, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 banklar v\u0259 s\u0131\u011forta \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259n faydal\u0131d\u0131r. Faiz spredl\u0259ri s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n qazanclar \u00e7ox vaxt g\u00f6zl\u0259nilm\u0259z olur v\u0259 kredit itkisi m\u00fcdd\u0259alar\u0131 kimi dumanl\u0131 m\u00fchasibat u\u00e7otu madd\u0259l\u0259rini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 ald\u0131qda \u0259sas m\u0259hsul v\u0259 xidm\u0259t firmalar\u0131ndan daha \u00e7ox f\u0259rziyy\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 dolu olur. Bununla bel\u0259, depozitl\u0259r v\u0259 kreditl\u0259r kimi aktivl\u0259r nisb\u0259t\u0259n sabitdir (2008-09-cu ill\u0259r istisna olmaqla) v\u0259 buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259, \u00fcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259, onlar\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirildiyi qiym\u0259tdir. Dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n, \u0259sas aktivl\u0259rin i\u015f\u00e7il\u0259rin kollektiv intellekt oldu\u011fu proqram t\u0259minat\u0131 v\u0259 xidm\u0259t firmalar\u0131 kimi “yeni iqtisadiyyat” biznesl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn kitab d\u0259y\u0259ri \u00e7ox \u015fey ifad\u0259 etmir.<\/p>\n
P\/S nisb\u0259ti<\/b>: Qiym\u0259t-sat\u0131\u015f nisb\u0259ti b\u00fct\u00fcn b\u00fct\u00f6vl\u00fckd\u0259 faydal\u0131 bir nisb\u0259tdir, lakin haz\u0131rda z\u0259r\u0259rli \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn y\u0259qin ki, \u0259n d\u0259y\u0259rlidir. Bu firmalar\u0131n P\/E-d\u0259n istifad\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn he\u00e7 bir qazanc\u0131 yoxdur, lakin P\/S nisb\u0259tini tarixi normalar v\u0259 r\u0259qibl\u0259rl\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259 etm\u0259k s\u0259hm \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcnasib qiym\u0259t haqq\u0131nda fikir verm\u0259y\u0259 k\u00f6m\u0259k ed\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n
Sad\u0259 N\u00fcmun\u0259<\/b><\/p>\n
N\u00fcmun\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Lockheed Martin (LMT) \u015firk\u0259tin\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r salaq.<\/p>\n
B\u0259zi fundamental ara\u015fd\u0131rmalardan biz bilirik ki, Lockheed Martin nisb\u0259t\u0259n sabit s\u0259naye, m\u00fcdafi\u0259 m\u00fcqavil\u0259l\u0259ri sah\u0259sind\u0259 \u0259la r\u0259qab\u0259t m\u00f6vqeyin\u0259 malik k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir firmad\u0131r. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, Lockheed uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259t g\u0259lirlilik t\u0259cr\u00fcb\u0259sin\u0259 malikdir. Biz h\u0259m\u00e7inin bilirik ki, firma a\u00e7\u0131q \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 aktiv\u0259 \u0259saslanan bir i\u015f deyil, ona g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 biz P\/EBIT nisb\u0259ti il\u0259 ged\u0259c\u0259yik.<\/p>\n
Son 5 ilin qiym\u0259t v\u0259 qazanc m\u0259lumatlar\u0131na n\u0259z\u0259r sald\u0131qda (bu, b\u0259zi c\u0259dv\u0259l i\u015fini t\u0259l\u0259b edir), m\u0259n Lockheed-in bu d\u00f6vr \u0259rzind\u0259 orta P\/EBIT nisb\u0259tinin t\u0259xmin\u0259n 9,3 oldu\u011funu m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edir\u0259m. \u0130ndi m\u0259n son 5 ild\u0259ki v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259n ke\u00e7irir\u0259m v\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u0259m ki, Lockheed 2006 v\u0259 2007-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 b\u0259zi g\u00fccl\u00fc m\u00fcdafi\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bi ill\u0259rind\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259yib, ard\u0131nca 2008 v\u0259 2009-cu ill\u0259rd\u0259 b\u0259zi \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli siyasi sars\u0131nt\u0131lar v\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bazar, ard\u0131nca bazar\u0131n yenid\u0259n canlanmas\u0131, lakin bununla ba\u011fl\u0131 probleml\u0259r var. m\u00fch\u00fcm F-35 proqram\u0131 bu ilin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259. M\u00fcdafi\u0259 departamenti x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n yava\u015f yax\u0131n m\u00fcdd\u0259tli art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq, m\u0259n m\u00fchafiz\u0259kar olaraq 8.8-in yax\u0131n m\u00fcdd\u0259td\u0259 bu fond \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn istifad\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn a\u011flabatan “h\u0259d\u0259f \u00e7oxlu\u011fu” oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr\u0259m.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7oxluq m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edildikd\u0259n sonra m\u00fcnasib qiym\u0259ti tapmaq olduqca asand\u0131r:<\/p>\n
2010-cu il \u00fczr\u0259 g\u0259lir t\u0259xmini 46,95 milyard dollar t\u0259\u015fkil edir ki, bu da 2009-cu ild\u0259n 4% art\u0131m dem\u0259kdir. S\u0259hm \u00fczr\u0259 g\u0259lir t\u0259xmini 7,27 t\u0259\u015fkil edir ki, bu da 2009-cu ild\u0259n 6,5% azalma dem\u0259kdir v\u0259 6% xalis marj\u0131 t\u0259msil edir. Bu r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rd\u0259n v\u0259 empirik m\u0259lumatlardan m\u0259n 2010-cu ild\u0259 EBIT-i 4,46 milyard dollar (9,5% \u0259m\u0259liyyat marjas\u0131) hesab edir\u0259m.<\/p>\n
\u0130ndi 40,5 milyard dollarl\u0131q h\u0259d\u0259f bazar d\u0259y\u0259rini \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 8,8-d\u0259n 4,6 milyard dollara q\u0259d\u0259r t\u0259tbiq edir\u0259m.<\/p>\n
N\u0259hay\u0259t, h\u0259d\u0259f s\u0259hm qiym\u0259tini \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bunu d\u00f6vriyy\u0259d\u0259 olan s\u0259hml\u0259r\u0259 b\u00f6lm\u0259k laz\u0131md\u0131r. Lockheed haz\u0131rda 381,9 milyon s\u0259hm\u0259 sahibdir, lakin ad\u0259t\u0259n ild\u0259 2-5% geri al\u0131r. M\u0259n bu f\u0259rqi b\u00f6l\u0259c\u0259m v\u0259 paylar\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131n bu il 2,5% azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 ilin sonunda 379,18 milyon \u0259d\u0259d qalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 f\u0259rz ed\u0259c\u0259y\u0259m.<\/p>\n
40,5 milyard dollar\u0131 378,18 milyona b\u00f6lm\u0259k m\u0259n\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 107 dollarl\u0131q h\u0259d\u0259f s\u0259hm qiym\u0259ti verir. Maraql\u0131d\u0131r ki, bu, 109 AB\u015e dollar\u0131 d\u0259y\u0259rind\u0259 diskontla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f pulsuz pul ax\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259sin\u0259 yax\u0131nd\u0131r. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, h\u0259r iki halda m\u0259n a\u011flabatan t\u0259xminl\u0259rd\u0259n istifad\u0259 etdim v\u0259 s\u0259hmin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirildiyini m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n etdim. 20% minimum “t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik marjamdan” istifad\u0259 ed\u0259r\u0259k, m\u0259n yaln\u0131z 85 dollar v\u0259 daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rl\u0259 Lockheed-i alma\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrd\u00fcm.<\/p>\n
Sar\u0131lmas\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n
Ayd\u0131nd\u0131r ki, siz qiym\u0259t-sat\u0131\u015f v\u0259 ya qiym\u0259t-kitab nisb\u0259tini asanl\u0131qla daxil ed\u0259 v\u0259 m\u00fcvafiq maliyy\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259rind\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259r\u0259k, ox\u015far \u00e7oxsayl\u0131 \u0259sasl\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259 apara bil\u0259rsiniz. Bu c\u00fcr s\u0259hml\u0259rin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si \u0259ks\u0259r insanlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bir az daha m\u0259na k\u0259sb edir v\u0259 m\u00fcxt\u0259lif s\u0259nayel\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcxt\u0259lif \u00e7e\u015fidl\u0259r kimi bazara \u0259saslanan amill\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131r. Bununla bel\u0259, diqq\u0259tli olmaq v\u0259 “h\u0259d\u0259f \u00e7oxlu\u011fu”nu qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndir\u0259rk\u0259n g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yin ke\u00e7mi\u015fd\u0259n nec\u0259 f\u0259rql\u0259n\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 almaq laz\u0131md\u0131r. Ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 istifad\u0259 edin v\u0259 tarixi bazar ortalamalar\u0131ndan \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k olan \u00e7oxluqlardan istifad\u0259 etm\u0259m\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131n.<\/p>\n