Ay\u0131 bazar\u0131ndan sonra pul \u00e7ox uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259t pul bazar\u0131 fondlar\u0131nda yatma\u011fa meyllidir. Ay\u0131 bazar\u0131ndan sonra b\u0259rpa zaman\u0131 (y\u0259ni yeni \u00f6k\u00fcz bazar\u0131n\u0131n ilkin m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259) f\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259r t\u00fck\u0259nir. Bazar y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259rk\u0259n tez-tez da\u011f\u0131l\u0131rlar. Bazar izl\u0259yicil\u0259ri bazar\u0131n illik 5% artd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 elan ed\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r, lakin siz bunu \u00f6z hesab\u0131n\u0131zda g\u00f6r\u0259 bilm\u0259zsiniz. Baxmayaraq ki, b\u0259zi f\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259r yuxar\u0131-a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131rp\u0131l\u0131r, dig\u0259rl\u0259ri is\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259lm\u0259 c\u0259hdl\u0259ri dayand\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131qdan sonra da\u011f\u0131l\u0131r, y\u00fczl\u0259rl\u0259 s\u0259hmin \u00fcmumi h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259ti yuxar\u0131 qalxmad\u0131r. Bu kimi x\u0259yan\u0259tkar bir bazar m\u00fchitind\u0259 nec\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t ed\u0259c\u0259yini bilm\u0259y\u0259nl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, ETF-l\u0259r (Exchange Traded Funds) f\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259rin y\u00fcks\u0259k turbulentlik v\u0259ziyy\u0259tind\u0259 olmas\u0131na baxmayaraq, avansda i\u015ftirak etm\u0259k yollar\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259min edir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ox vaxt (normal vaxtlarda) f\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259r\u0259 investisiya qoymaq, bazar indeksi fonduna investisiya qoymaqdan daha yax\u015f\u0131 g\u0259lir g\u0259tir\u0259 bil\u0259r. S&P500 y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259nd\u0259 bel\u0259, ad\u0259t\u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259nl\u0259rin \u00e7oxunu kompensasiya ed\u0259n bir \u00e7ox azalan s\u0259hml\u0259r\u0259 sahib olacaq. F\u0259rdi s\u0259hm se\u00e7iml\u0259riniz, \u0259ksin\u0259, S&P500-d\u0259 daha yax\u015f\u0131 s\u00f6vd\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259l\u0259r v\u0259 ya daha g\u00fccl\u00fc s\u0259hml\u0259r aras\u0131ndan ola bil\u0259r. M\u0259sl\u0259h\u0259t\u00e7il\u0259rin qar\u015f\u0131dak\u0131 ill\u0259rd\u0259 \u00fcmumi bazar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn (ad\u0259t\u0259n S&P500 dem\u0259kdir) 7% -d\u0259n 10% -\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r g\u0259lir g\u0259tir\u0259c\u0259yini e\u015fid\u0259 bil\u0259rsiniz. Bu g\u0259lir, b\u00fct\u00fcn m\u0259\u011flublar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn qalibl\u0259r\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 tarazla\u015fd\u0131rd\u0131qdan sonra xalis olur. S&P500 daxilind\u0259 se\u00e7ilmi\u015f f\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259r g\u0259l\u0259n il \u0259rzind\u0259 30% v\u0259 ya daha \u00e7ox d\u0259y\u0259r qazana bil\u0259r (onlar h\u0259tta il \u0259rzind\u0259 \u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan zirv\u0259y\u0259 30% v\u0259 ya daha \u00e7ox d\u00f6vr ed\u0259 bil\u0259rl\u0259r).<\/p>\n
\u0130ndi diqq\u0259ti bir az daraldaq. Bazardak\u0131 ayr\u0131-ayr\u0131 sektorlar da bir \u00e7ox s\u0259hml\u0259rd\u0259n ibar\u0259tdir. Bir sektor y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259nd\u0259 bel\u0259, o sektorun b\u0259zi s\u0259hml\u0259ri artmaya bil\u0259r. B\u0259zil\u0259ri orta s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259n \u00e7ox g\u00fccl\u00fc olacaq, b\u0259zil\u0259ri is\u0259 azala bil\u0259r. Sektor daxilind\u0259ki s\u0259hml\u0259rin b\u0259zil\u0259ri q\u0131sa m\u00fcdd\u0259t \u0259rzind\u0259 s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259 bil\u0259r v\u0259 daha sonra \u0259vv\u0259lki qazanc\u0131n \u00e7oxundan imtina etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r. Sektor daxilind\u0259ki bir \u00e7ox s\u0259hm son qazanc\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck hiss\u0259sini itirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn par\u00e7alansa bel\u0259, bu prosesd\u0259n bir q\u0259d\u0259r f\u0259rqli vaxtlarda ke\u00e7\u0259n sektordak\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn s\u0259hml\u0259rin \u00fcmumi t\u0259siri \u00fcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259n bir sektor olacaq.<\/p>\n
Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259, yax\u015f\u0131 f\u0259rdi s\u0259hm se\u00e7iml\u0259ri tap\u0131lmad\u0131qda v\u0259 ya f\u0259rdi s\u0259hm davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 x\u0259yan\u0259tkar olduqda, indeks v\u0259 ya sektor ETF-l\u0259rin\u0259 investisiya etm\u0259k yax\u015f\u0131 m\u0259na da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r. M\u00fct\u0259x\u0259ssis treyderl\u0259r g\u00fcnd\u0259lik ETF-l\u0259rin geni\u015f spektrini izl\u0259m\u0259yin v\u0259 s\u0131ralama\u011f\u0131n vacibliyini \u00f6yr\u0259ndil\u0259r. Niy\u0259? F\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259r \u00f6z tendensiyalar\u0131n\u0131 davam etdir\u0259 bils\u0259l\u0259r bel\u0259, bazarda g\u00fcc cibl\u0259rinin harada oldu\u011funu bilm\u0259k faydal\u0131d\u0131r. S\u0259hml\u0259r \u00f6z tendensiyalar\u0131n\u0131 davam etdir\u0259 bilm\u0259dikd\u0259, skan prosesi f\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259r\u0259 alternativl\u0259ri ortaya qoyur. F\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259r \u0259v\u0259zin\u0259 ETF-l\u0259rin n\u0259 vaxt istifad\u0259 edil\u0259c\u0259yini nec\u0259 bilm\u0259k olar? M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259, yeni bazar tendensiyas\u0131n\u0131n f\u0259rdi s\u0259hm tendensiyalar\u0131n\u0131 kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259t \u0259rzind\u0259 onlar\u0131n g\u0259lirli olmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259m\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r daxili impuls olub-olmamas\u0131ndan as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. \u018fh\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259st\u0259yin oldu\u011fu qiym\u0259td\u0259n bir q\u0259d\u0259r yuxar\u0131 bir ne\u00e7\u0259 s\u0259hm al\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131zsa v\u0259 qura\u015fd\u0131rma s\u0259hmin daha y\u00fcks\u0259k olmaq ist\u0259diyini t\u0259klif edirs\u0259, lakin h\u0259r bir halda s\u0259hm qazanc\u0131n ham\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 ya dem\u0259k olar ki, ham\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 itirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r sat\u0131l\u0131rsa, o zaman \u00e7ox g\u00fcman ki, f\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259r\u0259 investisiya etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn erk\u0259n.<\/p>\n
M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, bazarda yeni y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015f trendinin inki\u015faf\u0131n\u0131 izl\u0259m\u0259yin sad\u0259 yolu Dowun 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 izl\u0259m\u0259kdir. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tli ortalama y\u00fcks\u0259lirs\u0259 v\u0259 ba\u011flan\u0131\u015f qiym\u0259ti 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamadan yuxar\u0131d\u0131rsa, o zaman \u0130ndeksin y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015f trendind\u0259 oldu\u011fu hesab edil\u0259 bil\u0259r. Bu h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tli ortalaman\u0131n qalxma buca\u011f\u0131 onun ard\u0131c\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 birlikd\u0259 siz\u0259 yeni trendin g\u00fcc\u00fc haqq\u0131nda b\u0259zi m\u0259lumatlar ver\u0259 bil\u0259r. G\u00fccl\u00fc y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259n bir bazarda, indeks h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnd\u0259 qalacaq, b\u0259z\u0259n ondan xeyli yuxar\u0131 qalxacaq v\u0259 b\u0259z\u0259n yana do\u011fru ged\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 ya yenid\u0259n orta il\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131la\u015fana q\u0259d\u0259r azalacaq. Orta s\u0259viyy\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131qda, yuxar\u0131ya do\u011fru yeni bir itki il\u0259 yenid\u0259n geri qay\u0131tmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u018fg\u0259r 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tli ortalama g\u00fccl\u00fc \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259lirs\u0259, o zaman giri\u015f \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yax\u015f\u0131 vaxt ad\u0259t\u0259n s\u0259hmin ilk d\u0259f\u0259 orta g\u00f6st\u0259rici il\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131la\u015fd\u0131qdan sonra yuxar\u0131ya do\u011fru h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t\u0259 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 vaxt olard\u0131. T\u0259cr\u00fcb\u0259li treyderl\u0259r bunu nisb\u0259t\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk n\u00f6qt\u0259si hesab edirl\u0259r. Niy\u0259? G\u00fccl\u00fc 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tli ortalaman\u0131n t\u0259klif etdiyi d\u0259st\u0259k yax\u0131nl\u0131qda oldu\u011fundan v\u0259 stop-loss al\u0131\u015f qiym\u0259tiniz\u0259 yax\u0131n yerl\u0259\u015fdiril\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tli ortalamadan bir q\u0259d\u0259r a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk hesab olunur. \u0130ndeks, dayanma itkisini i\u015f\u0259 salmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn orta qiym\u0259tin t\u0259klif etdiyi d\u0259st\u0259kd\u0259n ke\u00e7m\u0259li olacaq. Bel\u0259 bir n\u00fcfuz bir \u015feyin s\u0259hv oldu\u011funu v\u0259 m\u00f6vqeyin saxlamaq ist\u0259m\u0259diyiniz bir m\u00f6vqe oldu\u011funu g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Dow-a s\u0259rmay\u0259 qoymaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u015f\u0259xs Dow-u t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259n 30 s\u0259hm\u0259 s\u0259rmay\u0259 qoyan ETF olan DIA-n\u0131n s\u0259hml\u0259rini ala bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n
\u0130ndi konsepsiyan\u0131 geni\u015fl\u0259ndirin. Bazar d\u00fc\u015f\u0259rk\u0259n, y\u00fcks\u00fcz Rydex Ursa fonduna investisiya etm\u0259yi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u0259 bil\u0259rsiniz (Ursa, S&P500 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259nd\u0259 \u200b\u200by\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259n “m\u0259nfi S&P500 fondudur”). Daha sonra, bazar y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259n zaman, f\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259r “al\u0131\u015f” t\u0259l\u0259bl\u0259riniz\u0259 cavab ver\u0259n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r v\u0259 ya d\u0259rhal pozulmayan tendensiyalara sahib olana q\u0259d\u0259r DIA (Dow) v\u0259 ya SPY (S&P500) s\u0259hml\u0259rini ala bil\u0259rsiniz. Na\u011fd pul balans\u0131ndan istifad\u0259nin h\u0259r iki \u00fcsulu pul bazar\u0131 fondundan daha yax\u015f\u0131 g\u0259lir verm\u0259lidir. Bazar\u0131n v\u0259 ya bazar\u0131n m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n sektorlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015f trendind\u0259 olmas\u0131na baxmayaraq, f\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259r h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 \u00e7ox d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259n olduqda istifad\u0259 edil\u0259 bil\u0259n m\u00fcxt\u0259lif ETF-l\u0259r var. \u018fg\u0259r siz kommunal investorsunuzsa, \u00e7ox sektorlu hesab \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn SPY-d\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259 bildiyiniz kimi, S&P Utilities (simvol = XLU) \u0259sas\u0131nda kommunal SPDR-d\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259 bil\u0259rsiniz. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama (v\u0259 ya n\u0259zar\u0259t etdiyiniz dig\u0259r g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r) sizi bazar\u0131n bir m\u00fcdd\u0259t davam ed\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259k eni\u015fd\u0259 oldu\u011funa inand\u0131rd\u0131qda, siz Ursa fonduna v\u0259 ya bazar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259nd\u0259 \u200b\u200by\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259n ETF-\u0259 investisiya ed\u0259 bil\u0259rsiniz. Siz Dow-u DOG il\u0259, NASDAQ-\u0131 PSQ il\u0259, S&P500-\u00fc SH il\u0259, S&P Midcap 400-\u00fc MYY il\u0259 q\u0131saltmaq v\u0259 s. ed\u0259 bil\u0259rsiniz. H\u0259d\u0259fl\u0259nmi\u015f indeksd\u0259n iki d\u0259f\u0259 \u00e7ox olan g\u00fcnd\u0259lik investisiya n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rini axtaran ultra ETF-l\u0259r d\u0259 var. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, Ultra QQQ ProShares, NASDAQ-100-\u00fcn g\u00fcnd\u0259lik performans\u0131n\u0131n iki qat\u0131na (200%) uy\u011fun g\u0259l\u0259n \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015fl\u0259r v\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259rd\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259l g\u00fcnd\u0259lik investisiya n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri axtar\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Buradak\u0131 m\u0259qs\u0259d v\u0259 m\u0259qs\u0259d f\u0259rdi s\u0259hm investorlar\u0131n\u0131 ETF investorlar\u0131na \u00e7evirm\u0259k deyil. Vaxt\u0131nda f\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259r tap\u0131lamad\u0131qda bel\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259n bazara investisiya etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259klifl\u0259r verm\u0259k v\u0259 ya f\u0259rdi s\u0259hml\u0259rin q\u0131sald\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ox riskli olduqda azalan bazarda qazanc \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259kdir.<\/p>\n
M\u00fc\u0259lliflik h\u00fcququ 2012, Stock Disciplines, LLC t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n. aka StockDisciplines.com<\/p>\n